Market trends

The postal market continues to undergo a period of change linked to the digital transformation, which, on the one hand, leads to a continuous structural decline in traditional mail volumes, stimulating the emergence and development of new digital communication markets (e-substitution), and, on the other hand, to an increase in the volume of parcels sent thanks to the growth of e-commerce, also enabling synergies for the proposal of end-to-end solutions within Contract Logistics.

In particular, for the mail segment, a further structural market decline in volume terms was observed in 2024 (-6.6% compared to 2023, compared to a slight increase in value of +1.8%). A further decline in the market is expected in 2025, both in terms of volume and revenue.

Within the parcels business, the overall market was on an upward trend in 2024, with an increase in revenue of 3.8% compared to 2023. A positive trend in total turnover is also expected for 2025. The sector's growth continued to be driven by the B2C segment, thanks to the positive trend in e-commerce which generated on-line purchases worth €38 billion in 2024 (up 5% compared to 2023) and with further growth in 2025 (€40 billion in on-line purchases expected for 2025, +5% compared to 2024).

The continuous development of the "B2C e-Commerce" market is supported by new trends that have emerged in recent years, namely: the rapid growth of the on-line "second hand" market (the economic value generated by the on-line buying and selling of second hand goods was €14.4 billion in 2024, equal to approximately +170% compared to 2014), thanks to the advent of specialised on-line platforms and the change in consumer preferences (the search for savings and greater awareness of sustainability issues); the need for consumers to have greater flexibility regarding delivery times and locations, which has led to an increase in demand for "Out of Home" deliveries (in 2023, the related volumes grew 8 times compared to 2019; double-digit percentage increase in 2024, with a similar trend also estimated for 2025), supported by the expansion of proximity networks in which the main couriers are intensifying their commitment in terms of dedicated investments. Recent trends include the increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) to improve on-line shopping: AI is being used to make "e-commerce B2C" shopping more effective, personalising product selection, automating customer service, improving catalogue quality and management, enhancing marketing campaigns, and reducing shopping cart abandonment along the on-line purchase path.

The logistics market in Italy is seeing steady growth in the outsourcing of logistics services by industrial and commercial operators to specialised entities capable of covering the entire value chain. In particular, the market for Integrated Logistics Services in 2023 will be worth around €13.9 billion, up 2.2% y/y.

For 2024, the level of growth was estimated to increase slightly (+2.8%) compared to 2023  while, in 2025, a slight slowdown in growth is expected. The market, although very competitive, is relatively fragmented. In addition, vertical integration policies continue and the number of extraordinary operations carried out by companies to create synergies between the different stages of the supply chain increases. There is increasing investment in the green transition, to best reconcile environmental and economic sustainability. Finally, an increasing use of artificial intelligence in logistics processes is confirmed, not only for warehouse or transport-related activities, but in particular for order management, demand forecasting and material reordering.

The first part of the year 2025 was characterised by better performance of European equity indices compared to those in the US, due primarily to the publication of better-than-expected corporate quarterly reports in Europe and a more expansive approach by the ECB compared to the Fed. US markets also experienced negative performance following the Chinese company Deepseek competitive advances in the AI business and, late in the first quarter, weakening risk assets were caused by increased uncertainty stemming from the US administration's economic policies and the tightening of tariffs, which led markets to consider greater downside risks to growth.

During the second quarter of 2025, the easing of trade tensions and signs of resilience in the macroeconomic context dampened investors' concerns about growth trends, fuelling robust appreciation of risky assets. Much of the turbulence in risky assets triggered by the announcement of reciprocal tariffs was absorbed by April 2025, and the recovery continued vigorously starting in May, thanks in part to the further easing of trade tensions, particularly between the United States and China.

During the third quarter of the year, trade agreements on tariffs with Japan and the EU, positive corporate quarterly reports and the prospect of monetary easing by the Fed supported equity indices. In detail, falling US government yields and the approaching start of a new round of rate cuts by the Fed following disappointing labour market data supported US equity markets where indices reached new all-time highs, also led by the technology sector and higher-than-expected corporate earnings.

In the latter part of the year, after reaching new all-time highs in October 2025 buoyed by optimism generated by solid corporate earnings, the extension of the trade truce between the US and China, and confidence about the continued expansion of artificial intelligence, global equity markets experienced a sharp correction in the second half of November, mainly involving the US Tech stocks segment dubbed the "Magnificent Seven", due to fears over high Artificial Intelligence (AI) valuations. The month of November 2025 saw an appreciable recovery, thanks to the end of the shutdown (freeze on non-core US federal government assets) and renewed expectations of a rate cut by the Fed at its December meeting, following the publication of the labour market report that confirmed its weakening. The S&P 500 ended the year with a positive performance of +16.7% and the Nasdaq +20.2%.

European equity markets also showed positive momentum in the year 2025, supported by publications of comforting economic data on the inflation side (stable and at levels in line with the ECB target) and confidence indices signalling a possible improvement in growth. Moreover, Euro Area indices, compared to US indices, continued to benefit from relatively lower valuations, more expansionary fiscal policies and renewed interest in "domestic" or infrastructure and defence-related stocks.

On the currency front, markets were characterised by a pronounced and generalised weakening of the dollar, concentrated in the first half of 2025 as a result of European fiscal policy guidance and fears over the US macroeconomic and fiscal outlook. On 31 December 2025, the euro/dollar exchange rate stood at 1.18, the highest level since 2021.

Banking system

Based on available estimates provided by the Italian Banking Association (ABI), at the end of December 2025, customer deposits of all banks in Italy, represented by deposits from resident customers (current accounts, certificates of deposit and repurchase agreements) and bonds, increased by 2.0% on an annual basis, settling at €2,137 billion, continuing the positive trend recorded from the start of the year (€2,069 billion at the end of January 2025). This reflected an increase of around €3 billion in bond funding (+1.1% y/y), and a 12-month increase in deposits from resident customers of around €39 billion (+2.1% y/y).

Asset Management

Assogestioni data show, at 31 December 2025 , total assets of €2,636 billion, up 5.3% on the €2,504 billion at the end of 2024. With regard to portfolio management, assets amounted to approximately €1,215 billion, up 5.3% from €1,154 billion at 31 December 2024. With regard to Collective asset management, assets went from about €1,350 billion at the end of December 2024 to about €1,421 billion at the end of December 2025 (+5.3%). With regard to open-ended investment funds alone, client assets stood at around €1,344 billion at the end of December 2025, up 5.2% from roughly €1,278 billion at the end of December 2024.

Life Business

During 2025, the market in the Investment and Pension business recorded positive net inflows of €9.9 billion, after a 2023 and 2024 strongly affected by the macroeconomic context, an improvement of €13.4 billion compared to 2024, when it was negative. This result is mainly attributable to the growth in gross inflows (+7.4% compared to 2024), mainly related to class III products, and the decrease in outflows (-4.6% compared to 2024) mainly related to lower lapses of class I and III products. The average lapse rate recorded in the market at 31 December 2025 was 9.40%, down from the value in 2024 (10.38%).

In the first nine months of 2025, the Protection insurance market continued on a path of robust growth in terms of premium inflows, recording, at 30 September 2025, €21.2 billion in premiums for non-motor P&C business (+7.6% compared to the same period in 2024), and €15 billion in premiums for motor business (+5.9% y/y), due not only to the positive trend in demand for Motor business, but also to an increase in rates as a result of the high inflation of recent years. In addition, premiums from the Protection segment of the Life business recorded gross inflows during the period of €2.5 billion (+€0.2 billion), compared to €2.3 billion in the same period of 2024.

Gross inflows relating to investment and pension products  is equal to approximately €115.5 billion in 2025 (+7.5% compared to 2024). If new Life premiums reported by EU companies is also taken into account, the figure reached €127.2 billion (+9.2% y/y).

With reference to the distribution channel, 57.3% of inflows relating to investment products was intermediated in 2025 through bank and post office branches, with a premium volume of €66.2 billion, up by 8.2% compared to 2024. By contrast, with regard to the entire agency channel, gross inflows in 2025 reached €27.7 billion, up €1.7 billion compared to 2024 and accounting for 24% of total intermediated inflows.

Gross written premiums through the authorised financial advisors channel amounted to €20 billion in 2025, up 8.1% compared with the amount placed in 2024, accounting for 17.4% of total intermediated premiums.

Lastly, the broker and distance sales channel recorded a decrease in the year of 11.2% compared to 2024, with a volume of premiums placed equal to €1.5 billion (equal to 1.3% of the total intermediated).

P&C Business

As regards the protection products market, the total premiums of the Italian direct portfolio, thus including the production carried out in our country by Italian companies and the representations of foreign ones, based on the latest official data available , amounted to €38.6 billion in the first nine months of 2025, an increase of 6.9% compared to the corresponding period in 2024, of which €15 billion (+5.9% y/y) related to the motor protection sector, €21.2 billion to the non-motor protection sector (+7.6% y/y) and the remainder (€2.5 billion, +6.7% y/y) to premiums from Life protection products.

The overall growth in the protection segment of €2 billion is mainly attributable to the development of the non-motor protection sector (+€1.5 billion compared to the first nine months of 2024), as well as that of the motor protection sector (+€0.8 billion compared to the same period in 2024). With regard to the former, the lines with the highest weight in terms of premiums written that recorded a positive change during the period were: Fire and Natural Forces, with premiums of €2,926 million and a 17.6% increase over the period; Health, with premiums of €3,738 million, up 12.6% y/y; Accident, with premiums of €2,981 million, up 2.7% y/y; General Liability, with premiums of €3,816 million, up 1.5% y/y; the Other Property Damage segment, with volumes of €3,403 million and a 4.7% y/y growth. With regard to motor P&C protection, the growth compared to the first nine months of 2024 is related both to the increase in premiums in Motor TPL (+€0.5 billion) and to the increase in premiums from the Land Hull Insurance business (+€0.3 billion).

Lastly, with regard to life protection, pure risk products (e.g. TCM, LTC and CPI) grew by €0.2 billion (+6.5%) compared to the first nine months of 2024.

As for distribution channels, the agency channel remains the leader with a market share of 69% at the end of September 2025 (substantially in line if compared with the figure observed in the first nine months of 2024, equal to 69.8%). Brokers, together with distance sales, account for a 12% share of protection premiums (12.4% at the end of September 2024), while bank and post office branches account for a 12.3% share (11.8% in the first nine months of 2024). The remaining 6.7% (6% in the corresponding period of 2024) refers to inflows intermediated through direct sales, which recorded a 6.1% incidence in the first nine months of 2025 (5.4% recorded in the first nine months of 2024), and secondly to inflows intermediated through qualified financial advisors, which represent 0.6% of total volumes (equal to the figure recorded in the same period of 2024).

On the Italian payment cards market in the first nine months of 2025 show a total domestic value of card transactions of approximately €360 billion, up 7.4% compared to the first nine months of 2024 and confirming the continued expansion of digital payments in Italy.

The number of transactions grew by 13.2% over the first nine months of 2024 to €8.9 billion, a sign of an increasingly consolidated daily use of cards, also thanks to more widespread use of digital payments by merchants (e-commerce and contactless payments). Debit card transactions grew by 14.8% compared to the first nine months of 2024, confirming their position as the most used by Italians, accounting for 62% of total transactions and amounting to €216 billion (+8.6% y/y) with an average transaction value of approximately €39.2, down €2.2 (-5.4%) compared to the same period of 2024 (€41.4). The use of credit cards has increased, especially for larger payments, with transactions and transaction value up by 9.3% and 5.0% respectively compared to the first nine months of 2024. Prepaid cards also recorded a positive performance (+11.7% of transactions and +6.2% of transaction value compared to the same period in 2024), thanks to the continued development of e-commerce and increased penetration at physical points.

In June 2025 , the number of active cards on the market stood at 99.3 million, up slightly compared to December 2024 (+0.5%): up is the stock of debit cards (+1.5% compared to December 2024) with a total of 52.1 million active cards, while the number of credit cards (-0.3% compared to December 2024), amounting to 13.8 million active cards, and prepaid cards, amounting to 33.4 million (-0.7% compared to December 2024), decreased.

The mobile telephone market with a stock of Human-to-Human (H2H) SIMs at September 2025 of 79.3 million, shows an increase of 0.8% compared to the end of 2024 (78.7 million  of H2H SIMs). In particular, taking into account the creation of the new operator Fastweb + Vodafone, the growth continues in the number of SIMs (+7.3% compared to 31 December 2024) of virtual operators (Mobile Virtual Network Operator - MVNO), while the growth of stock of SIMs of the incumbent operators continues at a more moderate rate (+0.2% compared to the end of 2024). Poste Mobile, which accounts for 45% of MVNO, recorded slight growth (+1.4% of H2H SIMs compared to December 2024) with a stable market share of 5.5% in September 2025.

The energy market during 2025 continued to experience significant volatility, in line with the first part of the year, due to continuing international geopolitical tensions and changes in weather conditions and forecasts , which had a significant impact especially for gas in the first quarter of 2025. Gas and electricity prices peaked at the beginning of February (gas prices in the Italian wholesale market at the Virtual Trading Point (PSV) hub exceeded €60/MWh) and then gradually declined until April, returning to values below €40/MWh, thanks to the end of the winter season in line with seasonal averages and as a result of the intensification of international negotiations concerning the Russian-Ukrainian war. Since May 2025, prices have started to rise again, albeit gradually and moderately, mainly as a result of the persistence of uncertain geopolitical conditions, significantly exacerbated by the Israeli attack on Iran and the escalation of the war conflict between the two countries, which has led to new increases in oil and gas prices. The greatest volatility was seen in July and August 2025, partly as a result of weather effects (heat waves or temperatures below seasonal summer averages), which mainly affected consumption and electricity prices for cooling. In September 2025, prices experienced a gradual decrease in volatility and level, reaching annual lows. In November and December 2025, prices gradually declined with a trend that came in below €30/MWh, thanks mainly to continued growth in the international liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, which allowed Europe and Italy to diversify their gas supplies, except for the last days of 2025 when a new price spike was observed.

However, price levels and their volatility remained lower than those recorded in 2021 and 2022 at the height of the energy crisis resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war, given that the European and Italian gas systems have achieved a significantly better diversification of supplies compared to the 2021 scenario. Imports from Russia have been offset by the strengthening of other import routes, in particular through Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which provides greater flexibility than pipeline imports.