During 2025, global growth exceeded expectations and global trade was buoyed by the anticipation of higher tariffs and trade agreements between the US and some of its trading partners. In this regard, the European Commission and the US reached a framework trade agreement on 27 July 2025, which provides for a 15% benchmark duty on most EU exports to the US.
Substantial investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) boosted economic performance in the USA, while fiscal support in China offset the slowdown due to unfavourable trade trends and a weak housing market. According to new projections by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), world GDP growth is forecast at +3.2% in 2025 (up from the previous estimate of +2.9%) and confirmed at +2.9% in 2026. The slowdown compared to 2024 growth (+3.3%) reflects lower investment and trade, caused by rising tariffs and persistent geopolitical uncertainties.
In the Euro area, in the presence of persistent uncertainty related to the geopolitical context and trade policies, GDP for 2025 came to +1.5% y/y (from +0.9% y/y in 2024).
Price growth, after slowing down in the first part of the year, reaching a low in May (+1.9% y/y), rose slightly in September to 2.2% y/y before falling back again in the last three months and closing 2025 at a low of +1.9% y/y. Unemployment stood at 6.2% in December 2025, close to the lowest level since the introduction of the euro.
In response to the inflationary dynamics, the Governing Council of the ECB lowered the interest rate on deposits at the central bank by a total of 100 basis points to 2.0% during the first six months of 2025. At the four monetary policy meetings held in the second half of the year (24 July 2025, 11 September 2025, 30 October 2025 and 18 December 2025), the ECB decided to keep its key interest rates unchanged, reaffirming a data-driven approach whereby decisions are set at each meeting. The ECB President emphasised that the disinflation process is over, that the uncertainty about growth has reduced compared to June and July, thanks to the trade agreement reached with the US, and that the labour market is still strong.
According to the December ECB projections GDP for 2026 is expected to grow by +1.2% y/y (from +1.0% y/y in the previous forecast) and +1.4% y/y (from +1.3% y/y) for 2027. Inflation estimates were revised upwards for 2026 to +1.9% (from +1.7%) and downwards for 2027 to +1.8% (from +1.9%), with the inflation target of 2.0% to be reached in 2028.
In Italy, preliminary estimates for 2025 confirm moderate GDP growth (+0.7% in real terms), but higher than expected despite the many global uncertainties that have characterised the entire year (geopolitical turmoil, trade protectionism, inflationary pressures, financial and energy market volatility). The levers of national growth were domestic consumption and investment, the latter also supported by the NRRP incentives, partly offset by the slowdown in exports. According to forecasts, Italian GDP is expected to grow moderately by 0.6% in 2026 supported by the stimulus to public investment linked to the acceleration of the disbursement of NRRP funds, while exports are expected to weaken due to the increase in global tariffs and household consumption is expected to slow down, despite the increase in real incomes. The escalation of international geopolitical tensions, with particular reference to developments in the Middle East, generated increased volatility in financial markets and energy commodity prices. The Group has analysed the effects of these dynamics and, at present, no significant impact on the current and prospective financial and economic situation has emerged.
The Group will continue to monitor the evolution of the macroeconomic environment, financial markets and energy commodity prices, evaluating possible prospective effects.
In this scenario, the Poste Italiane Group achieved record results in 2025, confirming the Group's ability to generate sustainable value over time. Specifically, Adjusted EBIT stood at €3.2 billion (+9.6% y/y), while Consolidated net profit was €2.22 billion (+10.3% y/y), both in line with the guidance revised upwards in July and ahead of the 2024-2028 plan. These results confirm the Group's continued ability to effectively execute its strategy, which is focused on diversification and the ability to adapt to market developments, while regularly exceeding its growth targets. All Strategic Business Units contributed to the record revenue of €13.1 billion (+4.2% y/y). In particular, it is worth highlighting the solid commercial performance on Savings and Investment products as well as the record revenue on the securities portfolio; the Group also consolidated its leadership position in Italy in the parcels sector and confirmed its role as the largest Italian operator in the payments sector with about 30 million cards, also recording significant growth in the protection business equal to about 3 times that of the market.
During the year, Poste Italiane continued to ground the Plan strategic initiatives: the implementation of the new business service model and the logistical transformation are underway and in line with expectations; the migration to the Poste Italiane app was completed in 2025. The "P" app represents the fulcrum of the Group's multi-channel strategy and is progressively integrating all the businesses of the Poste Italiane Group, supporting its transformation into a "Connecting Platform". The new app adapts to the behaviour, digital channel usage habits and needs of the individual customer through a high degree of customisation, also supported by the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI). In addition, Poste Italiane acquired 20.1% of the share capital of TIM S.p.A. and initiated several working groups to generate industrial synergies between the two groups; it also acquired 49% of the capital of PagoPA S.p.A., with the aim of promoting the adoption of digital services of the Public Administration and payments in Italy, while ensuring a smooth integration between the physical and digital notifications of the Public Administration.