Mail, Parcel & Distribution
The postal market continues to undergo a period of radical change linked to the digital transformation, which, on the one hand, leads to a continuous structural decline in traditional mail volumes, stimulating the emergence and development of new digital communication markets (e-substitution), and, on the other hand, to an increase in the volume of parcels sent thanks to the growth of e-commerce, also enabling synergies for the proposal of end-to-end solutions within Contract Logistics.
In particular, for the mail segment, a further structural market decline in volume terms is estimated in 2024 (-5.9% compared to 2023, compared to a slight increase in value of +1.2%).
Within the parcel business, the growth trend in overall market value continues in 2024, with an expected increase in revenue of around 4% compared to 2023.
The industry's growth continues to be driven by the B2C segment, thanks to the positive trend in e-commerce, which generated €38.2 billion worth of on-line purchases in 2024, up by 5% compared to 2023 . The continued development of the B2C eCommerce market is supported by new trends that have emerged in recent years, in particular the rapid rise of the on-line second-hand market (the economic value generated by the on-line buying and selling of second-hand goods was €13 billion in 2023, or +140% compared to 2014), thanks to the advent of specialised on-line platforms and the change in consumer preferences (search for savings and greater awareness of sustainability-related issues); consumers' need for greater flexibility on delivery times and locations, which has led to an increase in demand for "Out of Home" deliveries (in 2023, related volumes grew 10-fold compared to 2019), supported by the expansion of proximity networks in which major carriers are investing.
The logistics market in Italy is seeing steady growth in the outsourcing of logistics services by industrial and commercial operators to specialised entities capable of covering the entire value chain. In particular, the market for Integrated Logistics Services in 2022 will be worth around €13.6 billion, up 14% year-on-year. A lower level of growth is estimated for 2024 (+2.8%) compared to last year (+6% in 2023 compared to 2022). A further slowdown in growth is expected in 2025. The market, although very competitive, is relatively fragmented. However, some concentration phenomena have taken hold, typically stimulated by major industrial players seeking integration synergies between the different stages of the supply chain.
In particular, for the mail segment, a further structural market decline in volume terms is estimated in 2024 (-5.9% compared to 2023, compared to a slight increase in value of +1.2%).
Within the parcel business, the growth trend in overall market value continues in 2024, with an expected increase in revenue of around 4% compared to 2023.
The industry's growth continues to be driven by the B2C segment, thanks to the positive trend in e-commerce, which generated €38.2 billion worth of on-line purchases in 2024, up by 5% compared to 2023 . The continued development of the B2C eCommerce market is supported by new trends that have emerged in recent years, in particular the rapid rise of the on-line second-hand market (the economic value generated by the on-line buying and selling of second-hand goods was €13 billion in 2023, or +140% compared to 2014), thanks to the advent of specialised on-line platforms and the change in consumer preferences (search for savings and greater awareness of sustainability-related issues); consumers' need for greater flexibility on delivery times and locations, which has led to an increase in demand for "Out of Home" deliveries (in 2023, related volumes grew 10-fold compared to 2019), supported by the expansion of proximity networks in which major carriers are investing.
The logistics market in Italy is seeing steady growth in the outsourcing of logistics services by industrial and commercial operators to specialised entities capable of covering the entire value chain. In particular, the market for Integrated Logistics Services in 2022 will be worth around €13.6 billion, up 14% year-on-year. A lower level of growth is estimated for 2024 (+2.8%) compared to last year (+6% in 2023 compared to 2022). A further slowdown in growth is expected in 2025. The market, although very competitive, is relatively fragmented. However, some concentration phenomena have taken hold, typically stimulated by major industrial players seeking integration synergies between the different stages of the supply chain.
Postepay Services
The latest available data on the Italian payment cards market in the first nine months of 2024 show a total domestic value of card transactions of approximately €335 billion, up 7.3% compared to the same period of 2023 and confirming the continued expansion of digital payments in Italy.
The number of transactions grew by 14% over the first nine months of 2023 to €7.8 billion, a sign of an increasingly consolidated daily use of cards, also thanks to more widespread use of digital payments by merchants (e-commerce and contactless payments). Debit card transactions grew by 16% compared to the first nine months of 2023, confirming their position as the most used by Italians, accounting for 61% of total transactions and a transaction value of €128 billion (+8.6% compared to the same period in 2023) and with an average transaction value of around €41.5, which is around €2.8 (-6.3%) lower than in the first nine months of 2023.
The use of credit cards has increased, especially for larger payments, with transactions and transaction value up by 8.8% and 4.4% respectively compared to the first nine months of 2023. Prepaid cards also recorded a positive performance (+12% of transactions and +6.9% of transaction value compared to the same period in 2023), thanks to the continued development of e-commerce and increased penetration at physical points. At 30 September 2024, the number of active cards on the market stood at 103 million, an increase compared to December 2023 (+2.0%): the trend is supported by the performance of debit cards (+2.2% compared to December 2023) for a total of 55 million active cards. There was also an increase in the stock of prepaid cards to 34 million (+2.4% compared to December 2023) and credit cards to 13.6 million active cards (+0.6% compared to December 2023).
The mobile telephone market is generally stable in terms of the stock of Human-to-Human (H2H) SIMs compared to the end of 2023 (78.5 million of H2H SIMs) (+0.2%) at 78.6 million. In particular, the number of SIM cards of virtual operators (Mobile Virtual Network Operators - MVNOs) continues to grow (+6.6% compared to the end of 2023), while the stock of incumbent operators continues to decline (-1.0% compared to the end of 2023). Poste Mobile, which accounts for 32% of MVNOs, recorded slight growth (+1.4% of H2H SIMs compared to December 2023) with a market share of 5.5% in September 2024 (+0.1% compared to December 2023).
The energy market in 2024 was characterised by the full liberalisation for gas as of 10 January 2024 and electricity as of 1 July 2024. The operators, through targeted promotions and communication campaigns, tried to steer as many potential customers onto their free market offer, also soliciting those who had already made this choice in the past, resulting in higher switch rates. During the second half of 2024, the market maintained the gradual upward trend in prices that had started in the second quarter of the year, reversing the trend of the first quarter of the year, in which prices had reached minimum levels compared to the last two years. The rise is mainly due to the persistence of uncertain geopolitical conditions (in particular related to the Russian-Ukrainian and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts). The level of prices and their volatility, however, remained significantly lower than the values recorded in 2021, 2022 and 2023 at the height of the energy crisis resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war, as the European and Italian gas systems achieved a much better diversification of supply than in the 2021 scenario. Imports from Russia have been offset by the strengthening of other import routes, in particular through Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which provides greater flexibility than pipeline imports. In addition, European gas consumption will be significantly reduced in 2023 and 2024, by more than 10% compared to the average of the previous five years. However, the gas market, given the strong growth in the trade of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) by ship, has increasingly taken on an international scale, guaranteeing greater diversification and at the same time being influenced by the international geopolitical and economic context, which also in the second half of 2024 remained complex due to: the various wars and tensions (Ukraine, Israel, Syria, Iran, etc.), the uncertainties linked to the evolution of Asian energy demand and the trade dynamics between the United States of America and the rest of the world. In addition, during 2024, weather phenomena proved to be important factors in the volatility of gas and electricity prices in the European market, such as winter cold spells or summer heat waves, wind intensity for wind power plants, availability of water in reservoirs, etc., as a result of the increasing contribution of renewable sources in the energy mix, sources that are linked to the variability of weather conditions.
The number of transactions grew by 14% over the first nine months of 2023 to €7.8 billion, a sign of an increasingly consolidated daily use of cards, also thanks to more widespread use of digital payments by merchants (e-commerce and contactless payments). Debit card transactions grew by 16% compared to the first nine months of 2023, confirming their position as the most used by Italians, accounting for 61% of total transactions and a transaction value of €128 billion (+8.6% compared to the same period in 2023) and with an average transaction value of around €41.5, which is around €2.8 (-6.3%) lower than in the first nine months of 2023.
The use of credit cards has increased, especially for larger payments, with transactions and transaction value up by 8.8% and 4.4% respectively compared to the first nine months of 2023. Prepaid cards also recorded a positive performance (+12% of transactions and +6.9% of transaction value compared to the same period in 2023), thanks to the continued development of e-commerce and increased penetration at physical points. At 30 September 2024, the number of active cards on the market stood at 103 million, an increase compared to December 2023 (+2.0%): the trend is supported by the performance of debit cards (+2.2% compared to December 2023) for a total of 55 million active cards. There was also an increase in the stock of prepaid cards to 34 million (+2.4% compared to December 2023) and credit cards to 13.6 million active cards (+0.6% compared to December 2023).
The mobile telephone market is generally stable in terms of the stock of Human-to-Human (H2H) SIMs compared to the end of 2023 (78.5 million of H2H SIMs) (+0.2%) at 78.6 million. In particular, the number of SIM cards of virtual operators (Mobile Virtual Network Operators - MVNOs) continues to grow (+6.6% compared to the end of 2023), while the stock of incumbent operators continues to decline (-1.0% compared to the end of 2023). Poste Mobile, which accounts for 32% of MVNOs, recorded slight growth (+1.4% of H2H SIMs compared to December 2023) with a market share of 5.5% in September 2024 (+0.1% compared to December 2023).
The energy market in 2024 was characterised by the full liberalisation for gas as of 10 January 2024 and electricity as of 1 July 2024. The operators, through targeted promotions and communication campaigns, tried to steer as many potential customers onto their free market offer, also soliciting those who had already made this choice in the past, resulting in higher switch rates. During the second half of 2024, the market maintained the gradual upward trend in prices that had started in the second quarter of the year, reversing the trend of the first quarter of the year, in which prices had reached minimum levels compared to the last two years. The rise is mainly due to the persistence of uncertain geopolitical conditions (in particular related to the Russian-Ukrainian and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts). The level of prices and their volatility, however, remained significantly lower than the values recorded in 2021, 2022 and 2023 at the height of the energy crisis resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war, as the European and Italian gas systems achieved a much better diversification of supply than in the 2021 scenario. Imports from Russia have been offset by the strengthening of other import routes, in particular through Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which provides greater flexibility than pipeline imports. In addition, European gas consumption will be significantly reduced in 2023 and 2024, by more than 10% compared to the average of the previous five years. However, the gas market, given the strong growth in the trade of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) by ship, has increasingly taken on an international scale, guaranteeing greater diversification and at the same time being influenced by the international geopolitical and economic context, which also in the second half of 2024 remained complex due to: the various wars and tensions (Ukraine, Israel, Syria, Iran, etc.), the uncertainties linked to the evolution of Asian energy demand and the trade dynamics between the United States of America and the rest of the world. In addition, during 2024, weather phenomena proved to be important factors in the volatility of gas and electricity prices in the European market, such as winter cold spells or summer heat waves, wind intensity for wind power plants, availability of water in reservoirs, etc., as a result of the increasing contribution of renewable sources in the energy mix, sources that are linked to the variability of weather conditions.
Financial Services
During 2024, financial market conditions were on the whole favourable, also due to the easing of monetary policies by the FED and ECB, despite a phase of significant turbulence at the beginning of August, which affected the equity markets in particular, but which has since largely subsided. The main triggers were fears of a recession in the US, the publication of disappointing quarterly balance sheet data by some technology companies, and the impact of monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan on the currency market. These phenomena have largely subsided following the publication of reassuring macroeconomic data on the US economy.
Banking system
Based on available estimates provided by the Italian Banking Association (ABI)65, at the end of December 2024, customer deposits of all banks in Italy, represented by deposits from resident customers (current accounts, certificates of deposit and repurchase agreements) and bonds, increased by 2.4% on an annual basis, settling at approximately €2,089 billion, continuing the positive trend recorded from the start of the year (€2,041 billion at the end of December 2023). This reflected an increase of around €17 billion in bond funding (+6.8% y/y), and a 12-month increase in deposits from resident customers of around €31 billion (+1.7% y/y).
In December 2024, the average cost of bank funding (which includes the return on deposits, bonds and repos from households and non-financial companies) was around 1.14% (1.17% at 31 December 2023).
Asset Management
Assogestioni data show for Italy at 31 December 2024 total assets of €2,499 billion, up 6.9% on the €2,338 billion at the end of 2023. With regard to portfolio management, assets amounted to approximately €1,159 billion, up 5.9% from €1,095 billion at 31 December 2023. With regard to Collective asset management, assets went from about €1,243 billion at the end of December 2023 to about €1,340 billion at the end of December 2024 (+7.8%). With regard to openended investment funds alone, client assets stood at around €1,271 billion at the end of December 2024, up 10.6% from roughly €1,149 billion at the end of December 2023. In terms of net inflows, the asset management industry presents a positive balance of around €30 billion in 2024 (compared to a negative balance of around €49.6 billion in 2023).
Banking system
Based on available estimates provided by the Italian Banking Association (ABI)65, at the end of December 2024, customer deposits of all banks in Italy, represented by deposits from resident customers (current accounts, certificates of deposit and repurchase agreements) and bonds, increased by 2.4% on an annual basis, settling at approximately €2,089 billion, continuing the positive trend recorded from the start of the year (€2,041 billion at the end of December 2023). This reflected an increase of around €17 billion in bond funding (+6.8% y/y), and a 12-month increase in deposits from resident customers of around €31 billion (+1.7% y/y).
In December 2024, the average cost of bank funding (which includes the return on deposits, bonds and repos from households and non-financial companies) was around 1.14% (1.17% at 31 December 2023).
Asset Management
Assogestioni data show for Italy at 31 December 2024 total assets of €2,499 billion, up 6.9% on the €2,338 billion at the end of 2023. With regard to portfolio management, assets amounted to approximately €1,159 billion, up 5.9% from €1,095 billion at 31 December 2023. With regard to Collective asset management, assets went from about €1,243 billion at the end of December 2023 to about €1,340 billion at the end of December 2024 (+7.8%). With regard to openended investment funds alone, client assets stood at around €1,271 billion at the end of December 2024, up 10.6% from roughly €1,149 billion at the end of December 2023. In terms of net inflows, the asset management industry presents a positive balance of around €30 billion in 2024 (compared to a negative balance of around €49.6 billion in 2023).
Insurance Services
Life Business
In 2024, the market in the Investment and Pension business continued to be affected, albeit to a more limited extent, by the still high interest and inflation rates, although the disinflationary trend continued; this uncertainty was reflected in particular in the increase in lapses relating mainly to Class III products.
Despite the challenging market environment, Poste Vita's performance bucked the market trend (negative total life net inflows of €3.3 billion at the end of December 2024) with positive Investment net inflows of €1.5 billion at the end of December 2024 (albeit down by €1.9 billion compared to the same period in 2023). Specifically, in 2024, gross inflows of the Company's investment products amounted to €18 billion, up slightly by €0.2 billion compared to the same period in 2023 due to the increase in inflows of multi-class products (+€3.7 billion), only partially offset by the decrease (-€3.5 billion) in business regarding traditional build-up products.
At 31 December 2024, the lapse rate was 6.6%, up from 4.4% at 31 December 2023, and significantly lower than the market lapse rate recorded at 31 December 2024, which was 10.39%.
In the first nine months of 2024, the protection insurance market continued on a path of robust growth in terms of premium inflows, recording, at 30 September 2024, €19.7 billion in premiums for non-motor P&C business (+6.6% compared to the same period in 2023), and €14.1 billion in premiums for motor business (+11.0% compared to the same period of 2023), due not only to the positive trend in demand, but also to an increase in rates as a result of the high inflation of recent years.
Against this backdrop, there was also significant growth in Life Protection business, with market growth of 18.3% compared to the same period in 2023.
Below is a breakdown of gross inflows of investment and protection products at 31 December 2024 and 30 September 2024, compared respectively with the figures at 31 December 2023 and 30 September 2023.
Finally, with regard to Life protection, pure risk products (e.g. TCM, LTC) showed significant growth compared to the first nine months of 2023, amounting to €0.3 billion (+18.3%).
P&C Business
As regards the protection products market, the total premiums of the Italian direct portfolio, thus including the production carried out in our country by Italian companies and the representations of foreign ones, based on the latest official data available, amounted to € 35.5 billion at the end of September 2024, an increase of 8.8% compared to the same period in 2023, of which € 14.1 billion related to the motor protection sector, €19.7 billion to the non-motor protection sector and the remainder (€ 1.7 billion) to premiums from Life protection products.
The aforementioned growth of € 2.9 billion is mainly attributable to the motor protection sector (+€1.4 billion), due mainly to the increase in premiums from the Motor Vehicle TPL segment (+€ 0.9 billion) and partly also the Land Vehicles Hull Insurance business, which recorded an increase in premiums of € 0.5 billion, and the development of the non-motor damage protection sector (+€ 1.2 billion).
With regard to the latter, the lines of business with the greatest weight in terms of premiums written, which showed a positive change during the period, were: accident insurance with premiums of € 2,887 million, up 2.8%; health insurance with premiums of € 3,306 million, up 12.1%; the general liability line of business, with premiums of € 3,750 million, up 2.1%; the other property damage line of business, with premiums of € 3,210 million, up 5.7%; and the fire and natural forces line of business, with premiums of € 2,485 million, up 13.0% for the period.
As far as distribution channels are concerned, the agency channel remains the leader with a market share of 71.0% at the end of September 2024 (equal to the figure recorded at the end of the first quarter of 2023). The broker and distance sales channel represents the second largest premium distribution channel with a market share of 12.6% (12.9% at the end of September 2023), while bank and post offices recorded a market share of 10.7% (10.0% at the end of September 2023). The remaining 5.7% (6% in the same period of 2023) refers to intermediated inflows through direct sales, which accounted for 5.2% in the first nine months of 2024 (5.5% recorded at the end of September 2023), and secondly to intermediated inflows through authorised financial advisors, which accounted for 0.5% of total volumes at the end of September 2024 (equal to the figure recorded in the same period in 2023).
In 2024, the market in the Investment and Pension business continued to be affected, albeit to a more limited extent, by the still high interest and inflation rates, although the disinflationary trend continued; this uncertainty was reflected in particular in the increase in lapses relating mainly to Class III products.
Despite the challenging market environment, Poste Vita's performance bucked the market trend (negative total life net inflows of €3.3 billion at the end of December 2024) with positive Investment net inflows of €1.5 billion at the end of December 2024 (albeit down by €1.9 billion compared to the same period in 2023). Specifically, in 2024, gross inflows of the Company's investment products amounted to €18 billion, up slightly by €0.2 billion compared to the same period in 2023 due to the increase in inflows of multi-class products (+€3.7 billion), only partially offset by the decrease (-€3.5 billion) in business regarding traditional build-up products.
At 31 December 2024, the lapse rate was 6.6%, up from 4.4% at 31 December 2023, and significantly lower than the market lapse rate recorded at 31 December 2024, which was 10.39%.
In the first nine months of 2024, the protection insurance market continued on a path of robust growth in terms of premium inflows, recording, at 30 September 2024, €19.7 billion in premiums for non-motor P&C business (+6.6% compared to the same period in 2023), and €14.1 billion in premiums for motor business (+11.0% compared to the same period of 2023), due not only to the positive trend in demand, but also to an increase in rates as a result of the high inflation of recent years.
Against this backdrop, there was also significant growth in Life Protection business, with market growth of 18.3% compared to the same period in 2023.
Below is a breakdown of gross inflows of investment and protection products at 31 December 2024 and 30 September 2024, compared respectively with the figures at 31 December 2023 and 30 September 2023.
Finally, with regard to Life protection, pure risk products (e.g. TCM, LTC) showed significant growth compared to the first nine months of 2023, amounting to €0.3 billion (+18.3%).
P&C Business
As regards the protection products market, the total premiums of the Italian direct portfolio, thus including the production carried out in our country by Italian companies and the representations of foreign ones, based on the latest official data available, amounted to € 35.5 billion at the end of September 2024, an increase of 8.8% compared to the same period in 2023, of which € 14.1 billion related to the motor protection sector, €19.7 billion to the non-motor protection sector and the remainder (€ 1.7 billion) to premiums from Life protection products.
The aforementioned growth of € 2.9 billion is mainly attributable to the motor protection sector (+€1.4 billion), due mainly to the increase in premiums from the Motor Vehicle TPL segment (+€ 0.9 billion) and partly also the Land Vehicles Hull Insurance business, which recorded an increase in premiums of € 0.5 billion, and the development of the non-motor damage protection sector (+€ 1.2 billion).
With regard to the latter, the lines of business with the greatest weight in terms of premiums written, which showed a positive change during the period, were: accident insurance with premiums of € 2,887 million, up 2.8%; health insurance with premiums of € 3,306 million, up 12.1%; the general liability line of business, with premiums of € 3,750 million, up 2.1%; the other property damage line of business, with premiums of € 3,210 million, up 5.7%; and the fire and natural forces line of business, with premiums of € 2,485 million, up 13.0% for the period.
As far as distribution channels are concerned, the agency channel remains the leader with a market share of 71.0% at the end of September 2024 (equal to the figure recorded at the end of the first quarter of 2023). The broker and distance sales channel represents the second largest premium distribution channel with a market share of 12.6% (12.9% at the end of September 2023), while bank and post offices recorded a market share of 10.7% (10.0% at the end of September 2023). The remaining 5.7% (6% in the same period of 2023) refers to intermediated inflows through direct sales, which accounted for 5.2% in the first nine months of 2024 (5.5% recorded at the end of September 2023), and secondly to intermediated inflows through authorised financial advisors, which accounted for 0.5% of total volumes at the end of September 2024 (equal to the figure recorded in the same period in 2023).
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