During 2025, global growth exceeded expectations and global trade was buoyed by the anticipation of higher tariffs and trade agreements between the US and some of its trading partners. In this regard, the European Commission and the US reached a framework trade agreement on 27 July 2025, which provides for a 15% benchmark duty on most EU exports to the US.
Substantial investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) boosted economic performance in the USA, while fiscal support in China offset the slowdown due to unfavourable trade trends and a weak housing market. According to new projections by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), world GDP growth is forecast at +3.2% in 2025 (up from the previous estimate of +2.9%) and confirmed at +2.9% in 2026. The slowdown compared to 2024 growth (+3.3%) reflects lower investment and trade, caused by rising tariffs and persistent geopolitical uncertainties.
In the Euro area, in the presence of persistent uncertainty related to the geopolitical context and trade policies, GDP for 2025 came to +1.5% y/y (from +0.9% y/y in 2024).
Price growth, after slowing down in the first part of the year, reaching a low in May (+1.9% y/y), rose slightly in September to 2.2% y/y before falling back again in the last three months and closing 2025 at a low of +1.9% y/y. Unemployment stood at 6.2% in December 2025, close to the lowest level since the introduction of the euro.
In response to the inflationary dynamics, the Governing Council of the ECB lowered the interest rate on deposits at the central bank by a total of 100 basis points to 2.0% during the first six months of 2025. At the four monetary policy meetings held in the second half of the year (24 July 2025, 11 September 2025, 30 October 2025 and 18 December 2025), the ECB decided to keep its key interest rates unchanged, reaffirming a data-driven approach whereby decisions are set at each meeting. The ECB President emphasised that the disinflation process is over, that the uncertainty about growth has reduced compared to June and July, thanks to the trade agreement reached with the US, and that the labour market is still strong.
According to the December ECB projections GDP for 2026 is expected to grow by +1.2% y/y (from +1.0% y/y in the previous forecast) and +1.4% y/y (from +1.3% y/y) for 2027. Inflation estimates were revised upwards for 2026 to +1.9% (from +1.7%) and downwards for 2027 to +1.8% (from +1.9%), with the inflation target of 2.0% to be reached in 2028.
In Italy, preliminary estimates for 2025 confirm moderate GDP growth (+0.7% in real terms), but higher than expected despite the many global uncertainties that have characterised the entire year (geopolitical turmoil, trade protectionism, inflationary pressures, financial and energy market volatility). The levers of national growth were domestic consumption and investment, the latter also supported by the NRRP incentives, partly offset by the slowdown in exports. According to forecasts, Italian GDP is expected to grow moderately by 0.6% in 2026 supported by the stimulus to public investment linked to the acceleration of the disbursement of NRRP funds, while exports are expected to weaken due to the increase in global tariffs and household consumption is expected to slow down, despite the increase in real incomes. The escalation of international geopolitical tensions, with particular reference to developments in the Middle East, generated increased volatility in financial markets and energy commodity prices. The Group has analysed the effects of these dynamics and, at present, no significant impact on the current and prospective financial and economic situation has emerged.
The Group will continue to monitor the evolution of the macroeconomic environment, financial markets and energy commodity prices, evaluating possible prospective effects.
In this scenario, the Poste Italiane Group achieved record results in 2025, confirming the Group's ability to generate sustainable value over time. Specifically, Adjusted EBIT stood at €3.2 billion (+9.6% y/y), while Consolidated net profit was €2.22 billion (+10.3% y/y), both in line with the guidance revised upwards in July and ahead of the 2024-2028 plan. These results confirm the Group's continued ability to effectively execute its strategy, which is focused on diversification and the ability to adapt to market developments, while regularly exceeding its growth targets. All Strategic Business Units contributed to the record revenue of €13.1 billion (+4.2% y/y). In particular, it is worth highlighting the solid commercial performance on Savings and Investment products as well as the record revenue on the securities portfolio; the Group also consolidated its leadership position in Italy in the parcels sector and confirmed its role as the largest Italian operator in the payments sector with about 30 million cards, also recording significant growth in the protection business equal to about 3 times that of the market.
During the year, Poste Italiane continued to ground the Plan strategic initiatives: the implementation of the new business service model and the logistical transformation are underway and in line with expectations; the migration to the Poste Italiane app was completed in 2025. The "P" app represents the fulcrum of the Group's multi-channel strategy and is progressively integrating all the businesses of the Poste Italiane Group, supporting its transformation into a "Connecting Platform". The new app adapts to the behaviour, digital channel usage habits and needs of the individual customer through a high degree of customisation, also supported by the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI). In addition, Poste Italiane acquired 20.1% of the share capital of TIM S.p.A. and initiated several working groups to generate industrial synergies between the two groups; it also acquired 49% of the capital of PagoPA S.p.A., with the aim of promoting the adoption of digital services of the Public Administration and payments in Italy, while ensuring a smooth integration between the physical and digital notifications of the Public Administration.
GUIDANCE & OUTLOOK
Since its listing in 2015, Poste Italiane shareholders have benefited from a progressive increase in its share price with a growing overall remuneration, reflected in a level of Total Shareholder Return (TSR) about 2.5 times higher than that recorded on the main stock exchange index (FTSE MIB). The stock updated its all-time high several times during the year 2025 and set a new record in February 2026, with more than €23 per share and a capitalisation of around €30 billion. Based on the results achieved by the Group, as well as the broad visibility of future cash flows and the solid generation and optimisation of capital, management has proposed a preliminary dividend for the year 2025 of €1.25 per share, up 16% on the previous year value and corresponding to a pay-out ratio of 73%.
The sustainable growth of the Group's sales and profitability is confirmed in the 2026 guidance of the Adjusted EBIT and consolidated net profit, forecast at more than €3.3 billion and €2.3 billion, respectively, and communicated to the financial community on 26 February 2026 at the presentation of the preliminary 2025 results. The Group's improved performance is reflected in a strengthened dividend policy, based on a pay-out ratio above 70% of consolidated net profit (excluding the stake in TIM) and the addition of dividends received from TIM according to a cash-for-cash logic.
During 2026, the Group will continue along the development trajectory it has embarked upon, using AI as the accelerator of the strategic plan, applying it to the commercial service model, logistics and in the strengthening and streamlining of operations, always in keeping with the Group's core values. Furthermore, by 2026, the goal is to consolidate the Poste Italiane app as a business tool. Thanks also to artificial intelligence and data, Poste Italiane will increase its knowledge of its customers' needs and will be increasingly able to intercept them. This way, the Poste Italiane app will be enhanced as a hyper-personalised sales channel, in order to increase digital sales and develop qualified engagement for the Post Office.
The letter of intent signed at the end of 2025 to create a joint venture with TIM Enterprise, dedicated to cloud-based IT services, also marks a new decisive step towards digital innovation and, as part of the goal of synergistic development of the cloud and data sovereignty and confidentiality, Poste Italiane is in negotiations to acquire a 20% investment in the Polo Strategico Nazionale (PSN), a national strategic asset that provides advanced cloud technologies and infrastructure to Public Administrations.
The Group has launched a restructuring aimed at creating a new "Financial Hub", integrating the payments business and Financial Services: a strategic initiative that will further strengthen the Group's customer-centric approach and enable new cross-selling opportunities, enhancing the growth and potential of Postepay customers.
Our objective is to guarantee a competitive return to shareholders. For the 2025 results, we have proposed a dividend of € 1.25 per share - up 16% year-on-year and more than three times the amount paid in 2016 (€ 0.39). Thanks to strong visibility on future cash flows, we are further reinforcing our dividend policy, committing to a payout ratio higher than 70% applied to the net profit excluding TIM stake, to which we will add the dividends received from TIM on a cash-for-cash basis. We expect to receive approximately €100 million in cash dividends from TIM in 2027. Since 2016, we have returned € 9 billion to our shareholders.
MAIL, PARCEL & DISTRIBUTION
In the Mail, Parcels and Distribution sector, the logistical transformation will continue during the year, with the completion of the new internal courier network - which will reach 80% - the strengthening of leadership in the domestic parcels market, the development of international business, integrated logistics and healthcare logistics.
FINANCIAL SERVICES
With regard to the Financial Services SBU, the strategic initiatives for the year will be aimed at increasing cross-selling and customer asset growth. The implementation of the new business service model is fully in line with the plan and will be further accelerated by the reconfiguration of the network towards a more efficient Hub-and-Spoke model, which is scheduled to be operational in 2027. Also for 2026, the Poste Italiane Group confirms the centrality of postal savings and the focus on offering products/services that are in step with evolving customer needs.
INSURANCE SERVICES
In insurance, the Group in 2026 will be committed to improving net flows in the Investment and Pension business supported by improved domestic life market conditions, more competitive insurance portfolios in terms of return and a strong focus of the sales network. In Protection, the Group confirms its role in supporting the reduction of the country's under-insurance in a growing market by exploiting cross-selling opportunities with investment products and third-party networks.
POSTEPAY SERVICES
In the course of 2026, Poste Italiane with its PostePay service offering will continue its commitment to accompany the changing habits of consumers, businesses and Public Administration and to create an ecosystem of integrated services through omnichannel, sustainable and transparent solutions. In particular, in the payments business, the aim is to enrich and optimise the services offered, with a particular focus on digital channels to improve the customer experience and transactional performance, capitalising on the leadership in e-commerce and maintaining a solid grip on regulatory developments. In the area of telecommunications, the migration to the TIM mobile network infrastructure is scheduled to be completed during the year, which will bring improved customer service as well as higher profitability.
Several sites will be dedicated to the development of the partnership with TIM to launch new initiatives and generate synergies between the two groups. Sales of the PosteEnergia offer are already active in the about 700 TIM shops while, in the last quarter of 2025, TIM enhanced its insurance protection offer for SMEs with cyber, catastrophe and legal protection cover provided by the Poste Vita Group and, from the first quarter of 2026, extended the perimeter to retail customers with home and cyber cover.
In 2026, the Group will continue with the implementation of "Polis", a strategic project to support the country's social cohesion, which involves approximately 7,000 municipalities with less than 15 thousand inhabitants, in which the Post Office will be transformed into a hub of digital services for rapid and easy access to the Public Administration's services. Some 250 co-working spaces nationwide are also planned, as well as the implementation of numerous initiatives to support the country's energy transition. Since the start of the project, about 4,800 Post Offices and 160 Spaces for Italy (co-working) have been completed.