Outlook

Since the beginning of the 2022, global economic activity has shown progressive signs of slowing down, related initially to the spread of Covid-19 variants and, subsequently, to the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in February. The unstable geopolitical situation continued throughout the year, accompanied by the energy crisis, largely a consequence of the conflict, and pressures on supply chains; these factors led to an escalation of energy prices, which affected those of other goods and services. This was compounded during the period by the repeated interest rate hikes decided by the major central banks to mitigate rising inflation. This context has led to growing uncertainty about the economic outlook, with inevitable risks of a deterioration in the macroeconomic scenario for 2023.       

Against this backdrop, the Poste Italiane Group achieved record financial results in 2022, in line with the upgraded guidance communicated to the “financial community” in November 2022, which allowed for an increase in the dividend paid to shareholders for the year 2022 (DPS at €0.650, +10% y/y compared to the +7% y/y forecast by the dividend policy). The Poste Italiane Group, in addition to distinguishing itself through a diversified business structure that allows it to benefit from a constant natural balancing effect between the trends affecting its businesses, has historically demonstrated resilience in times of economic uncertainty and financial turbulence, indeed establishing itself as a “safe harbour” for savers, thanks to a portfolio of financial offerings characterised by products with reduced risk exposure and volatility. In this regard, it should be noted that the Group has negligible exposures to credit institutions recently involved in financial distress. The Group’s cost structure is flexible, with a significant component of variable costs correlated to revenue; the Group mainly sources and competes in the domestic market, has no production units located in the countries affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, or neighbouring countries, and has minor commercial relations with these countries; therefore, it has no direct repercussions that could have a significant impact

on its business or on its profitability. Lastly, the Group benefits from the effects of actions implemented during favourable market periods, aimed at mitigating price fluctuations of production inputs or hedging transactions against the risk of fluctuations in fuel prices and gas and energy supplies. The National Collective Labour Agreement is valid until the end of 2023.

On 30 March 2023, the strategy update for 2023 was presented to the financial community, reviewing the outlook of the various Strategic Business Units. The objective of configuring Poste Italiane as a platform company evolving towards a diversified and integrated business model to offer Italians a single, omnichannel access point for an increasingly wide range of products/services was confirmed.

In the Mail, Parcel and Distribution Strategic Business Unit: after a 2022 of substantial stability in the parcels and logistics segment, a return to a growth path is expected, however conditioned by the uncertainty of the macroeconomic reference variables. In this scenario, the Group aims to accelerate the transformation path towards an “all-round logistics operator”: the acquisition of Plurima, aimed at entering the specific hospital logistics sector, the renewal of the partnership with Amazon for 5 years, and the recent partnership with DHL (announced on 10 March 2023), which confirms the Group’s commitment to developing its international business, are part of this strategy. The SBU, in the mail segment, will continue to adjust its offer and tariffs, managing the structural mail decline related to e-substitution.

In the Financial Services Strategic Business Unit, postal savings will remain at the centre of the Group’s financial services offering, with a renewed and competitive commercial proposition, confirming itself as a simple and transparent tool for savers; at the same time, the net interest income will continue to contribute to revenue supported by higher rates in a changed macro environment.

The Insurance Services Strategic Business Unit confirms its relevance for the group’s profitability also following the implementation of the IFRS17 accounting standard, with the recognition of a Contractual Service Margin (CSM) in transition of approximately €11 billion that will support sustainable profitability over time. The Group builds on its leading position in the life business and aims to develop the P&C business with an integrated modular offering of customised protection, assistance and service solutions. The

acquisition of Net Insurance, which will be finalised during the second quarter, will help accelerate the growth and profitability of the protection business.

With regards to the Payments and Mobile Strategic Business Unit, the acquisition of LIS, a leader in proximity payments, will ensure an acceleration of the Group’s omnichannel strategy, with the development of new services and leveraging the complementary nature of the tobacconist network with post offices and digital channels. In addition, the new Poste Energia offer for

electricity and gas was launched on the market in January 2023, now available on digital web and app channels, with over 150 thousand contracts signed by the end of March. The offer exemplifies the clarity of the business proposition and ease of use of Poste Italiane’s services, ensuring a unique omnichannel customer experience.

Continuing its commitment to the Group’s digital transformation by supporting citizens, businesses and the PA in the digitalization process, Poste Italiane confirms its role as a strategic pillar by effectively and efficiently connecting the country. The recent acquisition of Sourcesense, a company operating in the development of cloud-native solutions based on open-source technology,

aims to accelerate the Group’s digital transformation with the internalisation of core competencies supporting a cutting-edge operating platform, while through the acquisition of Agile Lab, the Group will strengthen its presence in the modern “data industry”, enhancing its capabilities to build “data-driven” businesses for internal use and for the market.

As part of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, the Group will invest significant resources in the implementation of “Polis”, a strategic project to support the country’s social cohesion with particular reference to approximately 7,000 municipalities with a population of less than 15 thousand inhabitants by becoming the home of the public administration’s digital services. Some 250 co-working spaces nationwide are also planned, as well as the implementation of numerous initiatives to support the country’s energy transition.

In the path of transition towards carbon neutrality by 2030, investments and strategic initiatives will continue, such as the renewal of the delivery fleet with low-emission vehicles, the installation of photovoltaic panels for energy supply, the modernisation of the fleet with low CO2 emission vehicles, and enhancement of building efficiency; the replacement of current Postepay cards with cards made of eco-sustainable materials and with digital cards will also continue, as well as the development of specific offers aimed at enhancing customers’ sustainable behaviour.

2022 GUIDANCE UPGRADE – BASED ON AN UNAFFECTED MARKET SCENARIO
STRONG 2021 RESULTS UNDERPINNING 2022 GUIDANCE UPGRADE
 

GUIDANCE & OUTLOOK
Poste Italiane’s 2022 EBIT at €2.3 billion is a record high, more than doubling the 2017 level of €1.1 billion when we started our journey and up 24% compared to last year.

The impressive progression is fully supported by positive underlying contributions from all businesses.

Confident of the consistent delivery since 2017, today Poste can confirm its 2023 growth path. Our targets have always been achieved in different market conditions, highlighting the validity of our strategic choices and tactical cost management.

From 2017 to the end of 2023, we will have distributed almost €5 billion of dividends to our shareholders.

In particular we are proposing to increase the dividend to 65 cents per share in 2022, setting an all-time record and 50% higher than 2017.

The new 2022 DPS is up 10% year-on-year and we are targeting 71 cents in 2023, corresponding to an average pay-out ratio of almost 60% between 2022 and 2023.

MAIL & PARCEL

In 2022, mail revenues were resilient with repricing actions offsetting secular trends. Parcel revenues recovered quarter by quarter reaching 2021 level.

Our 2023 target is achievable against a challenging backdrop. Structural mail decline is here to stay but we are planning to mitigate it with tariff increases.

Parcel revenues are set to recover, and the new Amazon agreement is supportive of this trend, with healthy volumes registered since January.

 
FINANCIAL SERVICES

2022 revenues increased on the back of net interest income in a rising interest-rate environment.

Our revenue target for 2023 is set at €5.9 billion, mostly driven by recurring revenue components such as NII and Postal Savings distribution fees.

We expect the upwards trajectory of net interest income to continue in 2023, albeit flattening mostly due to cost of funding for corporates, repos and Public Administration.

By taking advantage of market conditions last year, we already locked-in €0.2 billion from active portfolio management. Nevertheless, during 2023, we will assess any potential opportunity to redeploy these gains supporting NII going forward.

Postal savings will be back at the core of our product suite. Thanks to a revamped commercial offer, agreed with CDP, we expect fees of €1.7 billion in 2023, up €100 million compared to 2022.

In 2023 we expect operating profit to remain broadly stable, affected by higher intersegment costs remunerating an enhanced distribution network.

INSURANCE SERVICES

We had a strong 2022 with total revenues increasing by 7%, nearing €2 billion net of baseline adjustments.

In the life business, the investment margin increased, benefitting from higher volumes, also supported by inflation-linked bonds.

The P&C business benefitted from higher Gross Written Premiums across all product lines and improving profitability.

EBIT increased 6%, reaching a record high level since 2017.

Looking forward to 2023, higher volumes and margins will be driving underlying profitability, with EBIT increasing to around €1.4 billion. As mentioned, we target a profitable growth of our Protection business, accelerated by the potential acquisition of Net Insurance.

PAYMENTS & MOBILE

Payments & Mobile business has performed particularly well with all product lines displaying strong revenue growth and driving exposure to the fast-growing payments-market in Italy.

Revenues and operating profit have in-fact doubled since 2017, with strong contribution from payments and increasing telco revenues. This is evidence of the strength of our brand and the trust of our customers.

In 2022 revenues totalled €1.32 billion, pro-forma for the consolidation of LIS for the full year for a fair comparison versus 2023.

The new energy business will contribute €0.2 billion revenues, benefitting from a strong commercial momentum, with over 3 thousand contracts currently sold daily.

Overall, we expect revenues up to €1.7 billion in 2023 and EBIT to grow to €0.4 billion, more than offsetting the structural decline in traditional payments and €0.1 billion drag due to the energy start-up costs.

We are providing a new 2023 guidance, which is now targeting an EBIT of €2.5 billion euro, confirming our steady growth path, successfully managing inflationary headwinds.

We are confident in our ability to deliver healthy profitability, and as such we have increased the dividend for 2022 and 2023.

Revenues will continue to steadily increase, excluding the impact of the new IFRS17 accounting standards on Insurance revenues, but this will only impact reported revenues, while EBIT will not be affected.

MARKET OUTLOOK

We are aware of the challenges ahead, but we have a proven track record to adapt to a changing environment, and we have clear visibility on 2023 targets.

As we enter 2023 with a subdued economic growth, we will leverage on secular trends rather than cyclical ones, taking advantage of growing markets. This is the case for our parcel, payments and insurance businesses which are all structurally underpenetrated compared to European average.

Our clients’ focus is on non-discretionary spending for daily needs, which is shielding us from the negative impact of the potential economic slowdown. The Polis initiative, previously mentioned, will contribute to our business diversification. The integration of Public Administration services will enable cross-selling opportunities as well as support our service-model transformation in the future.

Given the inflationary backdrop, we have protected the business with several tactical moves, which give us full visibility on cost base evolution into 2023. Our corporate energy costs are now mostly hedged for the whole year, the labour agreement will be in place until December this year and our track record in cost management keeps us in good shape.

Finally, we are well guarded from continuous market volatility, in particular we have stabilized our Solvency II ratio. Our loyal customer base rewards us with positive net flows. For example, since January this year we have already registered almost 2 billion insurance net inflows with a best-in-market 4% lapse rate. We benefit from a fortress balance sheet and ample liquidity, with a liquidity coverage ratio at 369% in financial services and a structurally prudent asset and liability management protecting us from current market volatility.

It is not by chance that during the last 20 years we have been experiencing a steady increase of our deposit base in any adverse environment, as we are seen as a safe harbour for Italian retail investors.

 

BETTER POSITIONED TO WITHSTAND MARKET HEADWINDS

AN ANTI-FRAGILE PLAYER - UNCHANGED SECULAR MARKET TRENDS UNDERPINNING 24SI