According to OECD forecasts, world GDP growth is expected to reach 3.2% in 2024, and then 3.3% in 2025 and 2026. Falling inflation, which will move towards central bank targets, steady employment growth and an easing of monetary policy will help support demand. However, the resilience of the global economy is accompanied by some risks related to escalating trade tensions and protectionism, the possible escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and difficulties with the fiscal policies of some countries.
Headline inflation continued to decline during 2024, thanks to restrictive monetary policy, but rose again in the latter part of 2024, after having reached its lowest level since April 2021 (1.7%) in September 2024. Headline inflation as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is expected to decline again to around the ECB's target of 2.0% from the second quarter of 2025. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone was at its lowest (6.2% in January 2025).
The ECB changed its monetary policy stance, reducing from June 2024 the deposit rate with the central bank by a total of 100 basis points in 2024. After the 25-basis point cut in December 2024, and the first two cuts of 25 basis points each at the meetings of 30 January and 6 March 2025 respectively, the reference rate on deposits stood at 2.50% and is expected to reach 2.0% at the end of 2025. The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-driven approach, taking decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis according to the flow of data, without binding itself to a predefined path.
In a digital age Poste Italiane remains one of the most trusted institutions in Italy, with physical presence in every community, as well as the largest digital platform in the country.
2024 has been a record year. We achieved record-breaking revenues of € 12.6 billion, record adjusted EBIT at € 2.96 billion, almost three times the 2017 level and net profit at € 2 billion, two years ahead of plan and fully aligned with our updated guidance. All our four business units delivered solid revenue growth, further validating the strength of our highly diversified platform business model.
Poste Italiane remains a strategic pillar for Italy, playing a key role in the country’s economic and social development.
We are extremely proud of the Polis project, reinforcing our position as a trusted partner for communities, bridging the digital divide and enhancing social cohesion.
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KEY FINANCIAL TARGETS
Sustainable profitability and strong cash flow generation supporting enhanced dividend policy
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| €bn unless otherwise stated | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2028 | CAGR (2023 - 2028) | |
| REVENUES | 11.99 | 12.59 | 12.8 | 13.5 | C.3% | |
| EBIT | 2.62 | 2.96 | 3.1 | 3.2 | C.4% | |
| NET PROFIT | 1.93 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | C.4% | |
| DPS (€) | 0.8 | 1.08 | - | - | ||
| DIVIDEND PAYOUT | 54% | 70% | Increased from ≥65% to 70% | |||
GUIDANCE & OUTLOOK
We remain focused on delivering sustainable revenue and profitability growth, with a € 3.1 billion adjusted EBIT and € 2.1 billion net profit guidance for 2025.
Furthermore, thanks to clear visibility on cash flows and effective group capital optimization we are committing to an upgraded dividend policy with a payout ratio structurally increased to 70% throughout the plan, translating into more than € 7.5 billion cumulated dividends over the 2024-2028 period compared to the original target of € 6.5 billion.
We proposed a full-year 2024 Dividend Per Share of € 1.08, up 35% year-on-year for a total dividend of €1.4 billion on 2024 net profit. The balance will be paid in June 2025. As a reminder, last year in March we gave a target DPS of € 1 in 2026, we are overachieving that target 2 years in advance. This year marks the eighth consecutive year of annual dividend growth with a cumulative € 7 billion in dividends distributed since 2016.
MAIL, PARCEL & DISTRIBUTION
We expect our external revenues to reach € 4 billion (2024: € 3.8 billion) driven by all customer segments, international expansion and supported by new client acquisition from contract logistics.
Continuous growth of international inbound business of €350 million.
Contract logistics revenue growing by 25% (2025 vs 2024).
Adjusted EBIT of € 0.1 billion (2024: € 0.1billion) ahead of plan.
2025 Operational Objectives:
- Share of parcels delivered by group employees: 42%, thanks to the planned launch of the new directly managed courier network in H1-25;
- Out-of-home parcel delivery volumes growth at 20%, leveraging on unmatched client reach;
- Building pipeline of regional healthcare concessions.
FINANCIAL SERVICES
We see gross revenues at € 6.5 billion (2024: € 6.4 billion) with relevant contribution from Investment portfolio revenues (€ 2.6 billion), resilient in a normalized interest rates scenario; Postal savings fees (€ 1.7 billion) and further growth in consumer loans distribution (€ 0.3 billion).
Adjusted EBIT amounted to € 0.9 billion (2024: € 0.9 billion) reflecting gross revenues trend.
Net Profit of € 0.7 billion (2024: € 0.67 billion).
2025 Operational Objectives:
- Continue the full roll-out of the new commercial service model: increase specialised coverage and Financial Advisors’ productivity by refocusing on value added clients (premium and affluent) and advanced front-end and advisory tools powered by Gen-AI to be provided to advisors.
- Postal Saving Focus including: working alongside CDP in revamping the Postal Savings offering adapting to the new rates environment; celebrating 150 years of Postal Books and 100 years of Postal Bonds by launching special anniversary products and hosting targeted events and allowing BancoPosta depositors and Postepay cardholders to access “Deposito Super Smart” (time deposit linked to Libretto Smart) through a streamlined process.
INSURANCE SERVICES
We expect our segment revenues of € 1.7 billion (2024: € 1.6 billion) thanks to resilient Life Investment & Pension and fast growing Protection business (exceeding 10% of total revenues in 2025), while preserving profitability.
Adjusted EBIT of € 1.5 billion (2024: € 1.4 billion).
Net Profit of € 1.0 billion (2024: € 1.0 billion) in line with Plan projections.
POSTEPAY SERVICES
We envisage segment revenues of € 1.7 billion (2024: € 1.6 billion) with relevant contributions from payments and energy business reaching around €100 million in revenues.
Adjusted EBIT of € 0.6 billion (2024: € 0.5 billion) one year ahead of plan.
2025 Operational Objectives:
- Over 10% growth in both the PostePay Services ecosystem total transactions, reaching 3.3 billion and the total transaction value, to approximately € 95 billion;
- 5 million Telco customer base (+4% vs 2024), leveraging on an increased number of clients switching to high-performance connectivity;
- 1 million Energy contracts (>50% vs 2024), supported by a renewed commercial effort and favourable market conditions.